The Points Guy
Meta Ads Dashboard · Mar 11 – Apr 6
Updated 2026-04-06 18:58 · GM: Jay Warner
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Cost Per Lead
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Impressions
After identifying the mix shift on March 19, we implemented spend caps and killed 13 underperformers. Proven ad share moved from 84.6% → 90.0% in 3 weeks, while killed/flagged ads collapsed from 14.2% → 1.6% of spend.
★
Underweighted High-ROAS Ads
DCT 174 (Secret to unlocking value): 88% ROAS at only 1.5% of spend ·
DCT 177 (Helped a friend): 256% ROAS at <0.5% of spend.
Combined 1.1% of total spend on ads returning 3–5x the account average. Recommend scaling both.
DCT-Level Mix Breakdown
P1 = Feb 1–Mar 15 | P2 = Mar 16–Apr 1| DCT | Name | Category | P1 Mix % | P2 Mix % | Delta | ROAS Feb | ROAS Mar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 139.2 | Transfer Trick | proven | 20.6% | 34.7% | +14.1 pts | 53% | 22% |
| 212 | Let's be honest | proven | 9.8% | 9.9% | +0.1 pts | 60% | 26% |
| 206 | Then I found TPG | proven | 9% | 10.9% | +1.9 pts | 35% | 40% |
| 102 | Ditch the gifts card | proven | 7% | 5.8% | -1.2 pts | — | — |
| 112 | Why fly economy | proven | 11.2% | 2.3% | -8.8 pts | 28% | 12% |
| 171 | Points Transfer Trick POV | proven | 9.5% | 3.8% | -5.7 pts | 20% | 21% |
| 174 | Secret to unlocking value | proven | 0.8% | 1.5% | +0.7 pts | 68% | 79% |
| 242 | Me POV | new | 0% | 3.8% | +3.8 pts | — | — |
| 239 | When People Tell Me | new | 0% | 2.7% | +2.7 pts | — | — |
| 241 | Family Trip Overseas | new | 0% | 0.8% | +0.8 pts | — | — |
| 205 | No idea how to use them | killed | 7.5% | 0.9% | -6.6 pts | 32% | — |
| 118.2 | Why fly economy v2 | killed | 4.7% | 0% | -4.7 pts | — | 8% |
Decision Framework (March 19)
6-Wk ROAS — 50%+ = Strong, 25-50% = Watch, <25% = Weak
2-Wk Click Rate — Target 25-30%, below 20% = quality concern
New Concept Cap — $3-4K/mo until 6-week ROAS confirmed
Signal Threshold — 700-1,000 subs for reliable ROAS read
Ad-Level ROAS (Feb 2026 Cohort — 6-Week Window)
Source: Louisa's Databricks Export — April 6, 2026| DCT | Name | Subs | Revenue | ARPU | 6-Wk ROAS | 2-Wk Clicks | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 212 | Let's be honest | 10,565 | $20,996 | $1.99 | 61% | 29% | Strong |
| 139.2 | Transfer Trick | 9,289 | $18,661 | $2.01 | 55% | 24% | Strong |
| 205 | No idea how to use them | 7,140 | $8,784 | $1.23 | 32% | 21% | Watch |
| 239 | When People Tell Me | 6,852 | $5,971 | $0.87 | 24% | 17% | Weak |
| 118.2 | Why fly economy v2 | 6,380 | $1,752 | $0.27 | 9% | 8% | Dead |
| 206 | Then I found TPG | 6,290 | $8,595 | $1.37 | 35% | 20% | Watch |
| 156 | How I discovered the trick | 5,276 | $7,421 | $1.41 | 33% | 27% | Watch |
| 112 | Why fly economy | 4,696 | $3,031 | $0.65 | 27% | 13% | Watch |
| 171 | Points Transfer Trick POV | 4,679 | $2,949 | $0.63 | 20% | 16% | Weak |
| 153 | Thanks for the partner trick | 2,990 | $2,841 | $0.95 | 29% | 23% | Watch |
| Brian | Brian Daily relaunch | 2,908 | $795 | $0.27 | 10% | 21% | Weak |
| 145 | AMA: How to maximize | 2,219 | $2,719 | $1.23 | 41% | 26% | Watch |
| 242 | Me POV | 1,815 | $550 | $0.30 | 9% | 25% | Dead |
| 170 | That turn left feeling | 1,733 | $0 | $0.00 | 0% | 6% | Dead |
| 134.2 | Don't forget this trick | 1,074 | $1,252 | $1.17 | 34% | 12% | Watch |
| 102 | Ditch the gifts card | 825 | $1,600 | $1.94 | 66% | 23% | Strong |
| 174 | Secret to unlocking value | 737 | $1,826 | $2.48 | 88% | 27% | Strong |
| 155.2 | Myth: 100K+ points | 687 | $355 | $0.52 | 17% | 27% | Weak |
| 177 | Helped a friend | 236 | $2,076 | $8.80 | 256% | 36% | Strong |
| 241 | Family trip overseas | 248 | $626 | $2.53 | 78% | 23% | Strong |
Why recent cohorts show low ROAS: Jan–Mar 2026 cohorts are 0–2 months old. Every cohort that has reached 10+ months has delivered $6–9 ARPU (200%+ ROAS). The Jun–Sep 2025 cohorts ($2.73–$3.94 ARPU) are the ones to watch — they should climb toward $6+ over the next 3–6 months.
Monthly Cohort Performance
Full history — Jan 2024 through Apr 2026| Cohort | Subs | CPL | Revenue | ARPU | ROAS | Maturity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01 | 49,388 | $4.49 | $500,301 | $10.13 | 226% | mature |
| 2024-02 | 37,790 | $5.81 | $327,693 | $8.67 | 149% | mature |
| 2024-03 | 29,719 | $5.82 | $195,529 | $6.58 | 113% | mature |
| 2024-04 | 21,794 | $6.56 | $173,395 | $7.96 | 121% | mature |
| 2024-05 | 22,269 | $5.97 | $163,847 | $7.36 | 123% | mature |
| 2024-06 | 22,746 | $5.56 | $175,894 | $7.73 | 139% | mature |
| 2024-07 | 25,099 | $5.48 | $190,338 | $7.58 | 138% | mature |
| 2024-08 | 22,195 | $5.58 | $198,370 | $8.94 | 160% | mature |
| 2024-09 | 14,778 | $6.34 | $126,810 | $8.58 | 135% | mature |
| 2024-10 | 19,026 | $5.54 | $162,962 | $8.57 | 155% | mature |
| 2024-11 | 13,039 | $3.90 | $79,625 | $6.11 | 157% | mature |
| 2024-12 | 22,832 | $2.75 | $190,292 | $8.33 | 303% | mature |
| 2025-01 | 81,375 | $2.86 | $697,874 | $8.58 | 300% | mature |
| 2025-02 | 80,114 | $3.41 | $639,417 | $7.98 | 234% | mature |
| 2025-03 | 73,312 | $2.93 | $654,797 | $8.93 | 305% | mature |
| 2025-04 | 94,087 | $3.45 | $865,978 | $9.20 | 267% | mature |
| 2025-05 | 108,578 | $2.92 | $666,523 | $6.14 | 210% | mature |
| 2025-06 | 102,124 | $3.05 | $402,717 | $3.94 | 129% | maturing |
| 2025-07 | 99,483 | $3.17 | $356,798 | $3.59 | 113% | maturing |
| 2025-08 | 81,757 | $3.55 | $223,124 | $2.73 | 77% | maturing |
| 2025-09 | 56,795 | $4.03 | $162,994 | $2.87 | 71% | maturing |
| 2025-10 | 67,332 | $3.59 | $242,836 | $3.61 | 101% | early |
| 2025-11 | 72,536 | $3.92 | $274,901 | $3.79 | 97% | early |
| 2025-12 | 49,698 | $3.61 | $181,275 | $3.65 | 101% | early |
| 2026-01 | 83,351 | $3.21 | $153,159 | $1.84 | 57% | early |
| 2026-02 | 92,721 | $3.47 | $130,309 | $1.41 | 41% | early |
| 2026-03 | 39,044 | $3.17 | $44,760 | $1.15 | 36% | early |
| 2026-04 | 4,587 | $3.05 | $0 | $0.00 | 0% | early |
TOV | DCT 139.2 Learned this partner transfer trick and saved big! Hold
CPL ↑ 0.7% WoW
Cost
$32,061.05
Impressions
1,599,653
CTR
2.73%
Conversions
9858
CPL
$3.25
TOV | DCT 206 Then I found TPG Hold
CPL ↑ 0.5% WoW
Cost
$11,030.88
Impressions
415,025
CTR
3.79%
Conversions
3770
CPL
$2.93
TOV | DCT 212 Let's be honest Hold
CPL ↑ 5.0% WoW
Cost
$9,486.56
Impressions
450,976
CTR
2.81%
Conversions
3147
CPL
$3.01
UGC | DCT 102 Ditch the gifts card Scale
CPL ↑ 7.1% WoW
Cost
$5,562.86
Impressions
244,581
CTR
3.00%
Conversions
1992
CPL
$2.79
Brian Daily | Better About Travel NGS Hold
CPL ↑ 10.2% WoW
Cost
$4,967.20
Impressions
198,276
CTR
3.14%
Conversions
1717
CPL
$2.89
Static | DCT 153 Thanks for the partner trick DM Hold
CPL ↑ 43.4% WoW
Cost
$4,170.97
Impressions
278,458
CTR
2.35%
Conversions
1193
CPL
$3.50
Static | DCT 156 How I discovered the points transfer trick Hold
CPL ↓ 9.0% WoW
Cost
$3,271.26
Impressions
184,797
CTR
2.97%
Conversions
1110
CPL
$2.95
UGC | DCT 171 POV: Points Transfer Trick Hold
CPL ↑ 18.0% WoW
Cost
$3,245.19
Impressions
108,088
CTR
5.23%
Conversions
1096
CPL
$2.96
TOV | DCT 242 Me POV Hold
CPL ↓ 7.1% WoW
Cost
$3,189.67
Impressions
155,992
CTR
2.77%
Conversions
1069
CPL
$2.98
TOV | DCT 239 When People Tell Me Hold
CPL ↑ 19.4% WoW
Cost
$3,136.86
Impressions
164,648
CTR
3.57%
Conversions
1065
CPL
$2.95
Static | DCT 134.2 Don’t forget this points trick Hold
CPL ↓ 19.5% WoW
Cost
$2,601.93
Impressions
138,100
CTR
3.57%
Conversions
925
CPL
$2.81
UGC | DCT 112 Why would you fly economy? Scale
CPL ↑ 11.3% WoW
Cost
$2,489.32
Impressions
97,950
CTR
3.56%
Conversions
1124
CPL
$2.21
UGC | DCT 205 No idea how to use them Hold
Cost
$2,136.24
Impressions
113,902
CTR
2.86%
Conversions
691
CPL
$3.09
Static | DCT 145 AMA: How to maximize your points value Hold
CPL ↑ 35.6% WoW
Cost
$2,073.43
Impressions
113,030
CTR
2.90%
Conversions
623
CPL
$3.33
UGC | DCT 200 How I fly (nearly) for free V1 Hold
CPL ↑ 20.0% WoW
Cost
$1,754.01
Impressions
36,186
CTR
6.28%
Conversions
575
CPL
$3.05
Static | DCT 174 My secret to unlocking value Scale
CPL ↑ 41.8% WoW
Cost
$1,398.05
Impressions
53,958
CTR
4.41%
Conversions
522
CPL
$2.68
TOV | DCT 170 That turn left feeling Hold
CPL ↓ 12.3% WoW
Cost
$1,338.94
Impressions
36,448
CTR
7.11%
Conversions
455
CPL
$2.94
TOV | DCT 241 Family trip to overseas? Hold
CPL ↑ 24.2% WoW
Cost
$1,112.60
Impressions
47,620
CTR
3.85%
Conversions
354
CPL
$3.14
TOV | DCT 155.2 Myth: You need 100K+ points to travel in luxury Kill
CPL ↓ 19.9% WoW
Cost
$645.05
Impressions
32,144
CTR
3.29%
Conversions
169
CPL
$3.82
UGC | DCT 158 Helping a friend Scale
CPL ↑ 54.4% WoW
Cost
$610.68
Impressions
25,638
CTR
3.29%
Conversions
221
CPL
$2.76
Cohort maturation thesis: TPG subscribers generate increasing revenue as they age. Cohorts reaching 10+ months have consistently delivered $6–$10 ARPU. The curve below shows each cohort's current ARPU plotted against its age — the upward trajectory validates the long-tail revenue model.
Cohort Payback Analysis
LTV/CAC ratio and contribution by cohort| Cohort | Age | Subs | CPL | ARPU | LTV/CAC | Revenue | Contribution | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01 | 27mo | 49,388 | $4.49 | $10.13 | 2.26x | $500,301 | $278,549 | Achieved |
| 2024-02 | 26mo | 37,790 | $5.81 | $8.67 | 1.49x | $327,693 | $108,133 | Achieved |
| 2024-03 | 25mo | 29,719 | $5.82 | $6.58 | 1.13x | $195,529 | $22,564 | Achieved |
| 2024-04 | 24mo | 21,794 | $6.56 | $7.96 | 1.21x | $173,395 | $30,426 | Achieved |
| 2024-05 | 23mo | 22,269 | $5.97 | $7.36 | 1.23x | $163,847 | $30,901 | Achieved |
| 2024-06 | 22mo | 22,746 | $5.56 | $7.73 | 1.39x | $175,894 | $49,426 | Achieved |
| 2024-07 | 21mo | 25,099 | $5.48 | $7.58 | 1.38x | $190,338 | $52,795 | Achieved |
| 2024-08 | 20mo | 22,195 | $5.58 | $8.94 | 1.6x | $198,370 | $74,522 | Achieved |
| 2024-09 | 19mo | 14,778 | $6.34 | $8.58 | 1.35x | $126,810 | $33,117 | Achieved |
| 2024-10 | 18mo | 19,026 | $5.54 | $8.57 | 1.55x | $162,962 | $57,558 | Achieved |
| 2024-11 | 17mo | 13,039 | $3.90 | $6.11 | 1.57x | $79,625 | $28,773 | Achieved |
| 2024-12 | 16mo | 22,832 | $2.75 | $8.33 | 3.03x | $190,292 | $127,504 | Achieved |
| 2025-01 | 15mo | 81,375 | $2.86 | $8.58 | 3x | $697,874 | $465,142 | Achieved |
| 2025-02 | 14mo | 80,114 | $3.41 | $7.98 | 2.34x | $639,417 | $366,228 | Achieved |
| 2025-03 | 13mo | 73,312 | $2.93 | $8.93 | 3.05x | $654,797 | $439,993 | Achieved |
| 2025-04 | 12mo | 94,087 | $3.45 | $9.20 | 2.67x | $865,978 | $541,378 | Achieved |
| 2025-05 | 11mo | 108,578 | $2.92 | $6.14 | 2.1x | $666,523 | $349,475 | Achieved |
| 2025-06 | 10mo | 102,124 | $3.05 | $3.94 | 1.29x | $402,717 | $91,239 | Achieved |
| 2025-07 | 9mo | 99,483 | $3.17 | $3.59 | 1.13x | $356,798 | $41,437 | Achieved |
| 2025-08 | 8mo | 81,757 | $3.55 | $2.73 | 0.77x | $223,124 | $-67,113 | ~10mo |
| 2025-09 | 7mo | 56,795 | $4.03 | $2.87 | 0.71x | $162,994 | $-65,890 | ~10mo |
| 2025-10 | 6mo | 67,332 | $3.59 | $3.61 | 1.01x | $242,836 | $1,114 | Achieved |
| 2025-11 | 5mo | 72,536 | $3.92 | $3.79 | 0.97x | $274,901 | $-9,440 | ~5mo |
| 2025-12 | 4mo | 49,698 | $3.61 | $3.65 | 1.01x | $181,275 | $1,865 | Achieved |
| 2026-01 | 3mo | 83,351 | $3.21 | $1.84 | 0.57x | $153,159 | $-114,398 | ~5mo |
| 2026-02 | 2mo | 92,721 | $3.47 | $1.41 | 0.41x | $130,309 | $-191,433 | ~5mo |
| 2026-03 | 1mo | 39,044 | $3.17 | $1.15 | 0.36x | $44,760 | $-79,009 | ~3mo |
| 2026-04 | 0mo | 4,587 | $3.05 | $0.00 | 0x | $0 | $-13,990 | TBD |